Pick'em Mode
Week 7Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
90
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
75.0%
Percentage
10-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
 LV
@
 KC
|
LV -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
0 - 31
|
| 14 |
 PHI
@
 MIN
|
PHI -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 22
|
| 13 |
 NYG
@
 DEN
|
NYG -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
32 - 33
|
| 12 |
 GB
@
 ARI
|
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
27 - 23
|
| 11 |
 NO
@
 CHI
|
NO -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
14 - 26
|
| 10 |
 WAS
@
 DAL
|
WAS -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
22 - 44
|
| 9 |
 TB
@
 DET
|
TB -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
9 - 24
|
| 8 |
 PIT
@
 CIN
|
PIT -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
31 - 33
|
| 7 |
 NE
@
 TEN
|
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 13
|
| 6 |
 HOU
@
 SEA
|
HOU -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
19 - 27
|
| 5 |
 MIA
@
 CLE
|
MIA -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
6 - 31
|
| 4 |
 IND
@
 LAC
|
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 24
|
| 3 |
 LA
@
 JAX
|
LA -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
35 - 7
|
| 2 |
 CAR
@
 NYJ
|
CAR -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
13 - 6
|
| 1 |
 ATL
@
 SF
|
ATL -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
10 - 20
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick.
1= least confident,15= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.