Pick'em Mode

Week 20
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
10
Points Earned
10
Points Possible
100.0%
Percentage
4-0
Record
0
Pending
2025 Season
← Week 19 Week 20 Week 21 →
Full Predictions
4
pts
SF SF
@
SEA SEA *
2026-01-17 20:00 Favorite
SF -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+4 pts
6 - 41
3
pts
LA LA *
@
CHI CHI
2026-01-18 18:30 Favorite
CHI -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+3 pts
20 - 17
2
pts
HOU HOU
@
NE NE *
2026-01-18 15:00 Favorite
HOU -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
16 - 28
1
pts
BUF BUF
@
DEN DEN *
2026-01-17 16:30 Model
BUF -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
30 - 33

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-4 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 4 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.