Pick'em Mode
Week 20Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
4
Points Earned
10
Points Possible
40.0%
Percentage
1-3
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
 SF
@
 SEA
|
SF -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
6 - 41
|
| 3 |
 HOU
@
 NE
|
NE -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 28
|
| 2 |
 BUF
@
 DEN
|
DEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 33
|
| 1 |
 LA
@
 CHI
|
LA -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 17
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-4 to each pick.
1= least confident,4= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.