Pick'em Mode
Week 18Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
104
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
76.5%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
CLE
BAL *
CLE -19.5
Lock
Correct
+16 pts
10 - 35
15
pts
NO
TB *
NO -14.5
Lock
Correct
+15 pts
19 - 27
14
pts
KC
DEN *
KC -10.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+14 pts
0 - 38
13
pts
CHI
GB *
CHI -10.0
Strong favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 22
12
pts
CAR
ATL *
CAR -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
44 - 38
11
pts
SEA *
LA
LA -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+11 pts
30 - 25
10
pts
LAC *
LV
LV -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+10 pts
34 - 20
9
pts
WAS *
DAL
DAL -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+9 pts
23 - 19
8
pts
SF
ARI *
SF -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
24 - 47
7
pts
JAX
IND *
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
23 - 26
6
pts
NYG
PHI *
NYG -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
13 - 20
5
pts
MIN
DET *
MIN -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
9 - 31
4
pts
BUF *
NE
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 23
3
pts
HOU
TEN *
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 14
2
pts
CIN *
PIT
PIT -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
19 - 17
1
pts
MIA
NYJ *
MIA -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
20 - 32
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.