Pick'em Mode

Week 17
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
119
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
87.5%
Percentage
14-2
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
BUF BUF *
2024-12-29 13:00 Favorite
NYJ -10.0
Strong favorite
Correct
+16 pts
14 - 40
15
pts
CAR CAR
@
TB TB *
2024-12-29 13:00 Favorite
CAR -9.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+15 pts
14 - 48
14
pts
IND IND *
@
NYG NYG
2024-12-29 13:00 Favorite
NYG -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
33 - 45
13
pts
DAL DAL
@
PHI PHI *
2024-12-29 13:00 Favorite
DAL -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
7 - 41
12
pts
ARI ARI
@
LA LA *
2024-12-28 20:15 Favorite
ARI -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
9 - 13
11
pts
LAC LAC *
@
NE NE
2024-12-28 13:00 Favorite
NE -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
40 - 7
10
pts
BAL BAL *
@
HOU HOU
2024-12-25 16:30 Favorite
HOU -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
31 - 2
9
pts
DET DET *
@
SF SF
2024-12-30 20:15 Favorite
SF -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+9 pts
40 - 34
8
pts
ATL ATL
@
WAS WAS *
2024-12-29 20:20 Favorite
ATL -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
24 - 30
7
pts
DEN DEN
@
CIN CIN *
2024-12-28 16:30 Favorite
DEN -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
24 - 30
6
pts
SEA SEA *
@
CHI CHI
2024-12-26 20:15 Favorite
CHI -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
6 - 3
5
pts
MIA MIA *
@
CLE CLE
2024-12-29 16:05 Favorite
CLE -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 3
4
pts
KC KC *
@
PIT PIT
2024-12-25 13:00 Favorite
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
29 - 10
3
pts
LV LV
@
NO NO *
2024-12-29 13:00 Model
NO -2.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
25 - 10
2
pts
TEN TEN
@
JAX JAX *
2024-12-29 13:00 Model
JAX -1.0
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
13 - 20
1
pts
GB GB
@
MIN MIN *
2024-12-29 16:25 Model
MIN -1.0
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
25 - 27

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.